AFL Round Forecast: 2026 Round 1 Tips & Predictions

Progressive Score = 9/14 (64%) | Mean Error = 30.21 | Median Error = 30 Odds

Carlton v Richmond (MCG)

ProbabilityCarlton 49.6% Richmond 50.4%
Fair OddsCarlton $2.02 Richmond $1.98
Forecast
Richmond by 1 pointcross
ResultCarlton by 4 points

Essendon v Hawthorn (MCG)

ProbabilityEssendon 40.1% Hawthorn 59.9%
Fair OddsEssendon $2.49 Hawthorn $1.67
Forecast
Hawthorn by 10 pointstick
ResultHawthorn by 62 points

Wstn Bulldogs v GW Sydney (Marvel Stad)

ProbabilityWstn Bulldogs 67.0% GW Sydney 33.0%
Fair OddsWstn Bulldogs $1.49 GW Sydney $3.03
Forecast
Wstn Bulldogs by 18 pointstick
ResultWstn Bulldogs by 81 points

Geelong v Fremantle (GMHBA Stad)

ProbabilityGeelong 63.3% Fremantle 36.7%
Fair OddsGeelong $1.58 Fremantle $2.73
Forecast
Geelong by 14 pointstick
ResultGeelong by 10 points

Sydney v Brisbane (SCG)

ProbabilitySydney 64.4% Brisbane 35.6%
Fair OddsSydney $1.55 Brisbane $2.81
Forecast
Sydney by 16 pointstick
ResultSydney by 44 points

Collingwood v Adelaide (MCG)

ProbabilityCollingwood 64.4% Adelaide 35.6%
Fair OddsCollingwood $1.55 Adelaide $2.81
Forecast
Collingwood by 16 pointscross
ResultAdelaide by 14 points

Nth Melbourne v Port Adelaide (Marvel Stad)

ProbabilityNth Melbourne 64.1% Port Adelaide 35.9%
Fair OddsNth Melbourne $1.56 Port Adelaide $2.78
Forecast
Nth Melbourne by 15 pointstick
ResultNth Melbourne by 46 points

Melbourne v St Kilda (MCG)

ProbabilityMelbourne 52.8% St Kilda 47.2%
Fair OddsMelbourne $1.89 St Kilda $2.12
Forecast
Melbourne by 3 pointstick
ResultMelbourne by 13 points

Gold Coast v West Coast (PF Stad)

ProbabilityGold Coast 76.7% West Coast 23.3%
Fair OddsGold Coast $1.30 West Coast $4.30
Forecast
Gold Coast by 31 pointstick
ResultGold Coast by 59 points

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