My Mate Mr Murphy

2005-03-14 16:44:14 GMT

According to FF's own probabilities, the odds of North Queensland, the Warriors, Wests Tigers and Penrith all losing in NRL Round 01 were approximately 22/1. Needless to say, those longish odds haven't amounted to much, with Murphy's Law once again trumping mathematical theory. It seems slightly cruel that the four narrowest forecasts of the round should all go against FF, particularly in the raffle that is Round 01 of a season. The only consolation is that the humans didn't have a brilliant week either, with the average for the round being a fairly moderate 4.4.

On the up side, FF's Super12 forecasts are going along very nicely, with there having been precious few upsets in the first three rounds of the season. Jinx! The Chiefs' Round 03 victory over the Blues was a significant upset in the minds of some, although FF saw it as a dodgy one with the Blues forecast by a mere 3 points.

With the AFL season looming, I've spent much of the last few weeks gently massaging the AFL forecasting model. The good news is that I've succeeded in squeezing a little more out of it. Consequently, FF V4 is now an across-the-board improvement over FF V3. If you checked out the AFL 2005 Round 01 forecast on a previous visit, then please take a second look because it's now marginally different. No further fiddling is planned.

My attention now turns to making good on those additional features I promised, but have not yet delivered. Namely the Season Forecasts, Current Standings and the Blog & Forecast comments.


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