AFL Tipping Review

2005-08-29 14:18:36 GMT

The AFL home-and-away season has come to an end and so has the participation of FF V4 in the 2005 AFL tipping competition. In a slightly disappointing result, FF V4 has finished on a score of 107, just a shade above the average of 106.6, leaving it ranked 42842 out of 120613 tippers. Full details can be seen in this screenshot.

Given the mid-season parlous state in AFL tipping, when FF V4 was some 3.4 points below average, it's clear that FF V4 delivered a quality result over the back half of the season, with it returning an above average score in 9 of the last 11 rounds. Whilst that doesn't sufficiently cover the very poor start to the season, it does at least reinforce my conviction that FF V4 is an effective learning machine such that its performance improves substantially as more data comes to hand. Nonetheless, I'll be investing some serious energy in the off-season into finding a little bit extra for 2006.

It perhaps also worth noting that this season finished as one of the tougher AFL tipping seasons I can remember. Certainly the average of 106.6 is well down on the 111.2 of last season and the 114.8 of 2003. Plenty of contrary results in the first half of the season, and Round 21 delivered a special encore performance of tip-stuffing come-from-behind heartbreakers just when I thought FF was sailing towards a glorious finale.

As for the AFL premiership selection, FF dropped West Coast like a hot potato a few weeks ago. Since then it's moved from St Kilda to Sydney, with the Swans favoured to shade Adelaide on the big day. Whichever way it goes, FF is forecasting a number of very tight results, so hopefully AFL fans are in for a few weeks of high drama.


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